At his book launching event on January 9th, Ha Tae Keung, president of Open Radio for North Korea, claimed "In about six months, there is a high likelihood that the Kim Jong Un regime may launch a much more aggressive provocation than either the Cheonan sinking or the Yeongpyeong shelling."

 

Kim Jong Un’s comment that he would turn the Blue House into a sea of fire may not be empty words, Ha added. “North Korea has been carrying out training exercises to prepare for the occupation of an island in the coastal waters of Haeju, Hwanghae Province. The provocations could be the occupation of a South Korean island, or a terror attack by an AN2 jet fighter, which cannot be detected by radar systems.”

 

As for the reason for these claims, Ha explained that after the numerous provocations by the Kim Jong Il regime, there were no retaliatory attacks by the administration of South Korea. This attitude from the South has caused additional provocations by North Korea. Therefore, Ha emphasized, “The South Korean administration should imply that they know about the  military training North Korea has been undertaking.”

 

In addition, Ha stated that Kim Jong Un is not mature enough to make serious, rational, or logical decisions, and further noted that he also has a lack of experience in politics and diplomacy. Therefore, Kim has the potential to carry out accidental and unexpected operations. 

 

In conclusion, Ha asserted that, “If the North carries out a further provocation, we should punish them as the U.S. did.”
 
In terms of the durability of the Kim Jong Un regime, Ha predicted that it could collapse within a year because, “His regime is a hundred times more vulnerable than his fathers. He needs comrades and associates in order to rule the country, but he has no sincere loyalists surrounding him. The youngest of those closest to him are all in their 70s, so communication with them is impossible.”

 

However, Ha added, “There is also a possibility that the regime could last longer than we expect. This is not because the people support him, but because there is no alternative to Kim Jong Un. Once the people have an alternative, it will collapse very quickly.”

 

The event at which Ha spoke was to launch his new books, “There Is No Border in Democracy,” and “Cartoon Kim Jong Un".