The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Program recently released their 2013 Crop and Food Security Assessment Report (CFSAR) for the DPRK. The 2013 CFSAR estimates the total main season production of grains and tubers, and projects next year’s harvest of winter wheat and barley as well as spring potato crops. To generate the report, they visited 51 farms from 27 counties in all nine agricultural provinces in North Korea, and interviewed a small number of individual households.
The 2013 CFSAR made two main conclusions. First aggregate farm production is up slightly, bringing North Korea the closest it has come to sufficiency in almost two decades. Second, despite signs last year that price structure and farm-led incentives might be changed, the 2013 report found no evidence that there have been any changes in pricing for farms or incentives.
The report also identified four areas of continuing change in North Korean food production. First rice yields have steadily increased since 2008 and are now at what the UN considers an almost respectable level of 5.3 Mt/ha. This is noteworthy and reflects the emphasis that Korean farmers place on rice production. Second, the area allocated to winter grains for double cropping has declined, especially since 2010. This reflexes a positive change as double cropping systems unnecessarily stress the soil. Third, the use of chemical fertilizers has decreased and one can speculate that the use of compost and other organic fertilizer has expanded. Finally, soybean acreage has declined in the last two years. Soybean are the primary source of protein in the North Korean diet, therefore, this development is unfortunate.
In addition to the aforementioned changes, the report elaborated on areas of stagnation in North Korean crop production. While rice production has increased slightly, other crops such as soybeans and winter grains are down. Maize and potatoes are trending upward, but with no strong consistency. Crop diversity remains low and highly concentrated on rice and maize. Additionally, the fertilizer supply is still inadequate, and the mix very imbalanced. Finally, the official prices farms receive for their grain crops are still set by the state at 2 percent of the market price, thus removing any economic motivation to increase the supply of grains to the State.
Overall, the report found continuing incremental change in the DPRK's agricultural system, which is reflected by the steady decline of the incidence of child malnutrition. The changes are mostly marginal, and somewhat positive overall, but do not address the fundamental structural problems: an overly rigid quota system for crop allocation; a procurement system and price structure that does not adequately compensate farms and farmers; and a market that cannot supply the essential materials (fertilizer, machinery, parts, fuel, etc.) that are needed for a more productive agriculture.
